How You Can Learn to Predict Mortgage Rates, Too

How you can learn to predict mortgage rates, too.

Many people, particularly, first-home buyers, tend to shop around for the cheapest mortgage rate that they see not knowing, or understanding, that these rates dip and fall. If you get an understanding of how mortgage rates work, you will be in a far better position to land one that really works for you and may even be cheaper than the one you’re ready to commit to, say, today.

Here’s how mortgage rates work.

The firs thing you should know about these rates is that they are unpredictable. They change. A high rate today may be low tomorrow. At one time, these rates were more stable. They were set by the bank. But since the 1950s, Wall Street took over and adjusted them according to supply and demand. Or more accurately, Wall Street linked them to bonds. So that when bonds – that are bought and sold on Wall Street – drop, mortgage rates do, too.

How can I know today’s bonds rates?

It sounds simple: let’s keep up with the prices of bonds and we’ll know when to shop for our mortgage. Unfortunately, only Wall Street has access to this knowledge (called “mortgage-backed securities” (MBS) data). And they pay tens of thousands of dollars for access to it in real-time.

Here’s how you can make an educated guess:

Calculate according to, what’s called, the Thirty-year mortgage rates.

These are the events that lower rates in any given 30 years:

  • Falling inflation rates, because low inflation increases demand for mortgage bonds
  • Weaker-than-expected economic data, because a weak economy increases demand for mortgage bonds
  • War, disaster and calamity, because “uncertainty” increases demand for mortgage bonds

Conversely, rising inflation rates; stronger-than-expected economic data; and the “calming down” of a geopolitical situation tend to elevate rates.

The most common mortgages and mortgage rates

You’ll also find that mortgages vary according to the level of your credit rating. The higher your credit score, the more likely you are to win a lower mortgage rate.

Mortgage rates also vary by loan type.

There are four main loan types each of which has a different level of interest. In each case, this level of interest hinges on mortgage-secured bonds. The four loan types together make up 90 percent of mortgage loans doled out to US consumers.

Which mortgage loan do you want?

Here is the list:

1. Conventional Mortgages – These loans are backed by Fannie Mae or Freddie Mac who have set regulations and requirements for their procedures. The Fannie Mae mortgage-backed bond is linked to mortgage interest rates via Fannie Mae. The Freddie Mac mortgage-backed bond is linked to mortgage-backed bonds via Freddie Mac.

Mortgage programs that use conventional mortgage interest rates include the “standard” 30-year fixed-rate mortgage rate for borrowers who make a 20% downpayment or more; the HARP loan for underwater borrowers; the Fannie Mae HomePath mortgage for buyers of foreclosed properties; and, the equity-replacing Delayed Financing loan for buyers who pay cash for a home.

2. FHA mortgage – These are mortgage rates given by the Federal Housing Administration (FHA). The upside of these loans is that you have the possibility of a very low downpayment – just 3.5%. They are, therefore, popular and used in all 50 states. The downside is that the premium is split in two parts.

FHA mortgage interest rates are based on mortgage bonds issued by the Government National Mortgage Association (GNMA). Investors, by the way, tend to call GNMA, “Ginnie Mae”. As Ginnie Mae bond prices rise, the interest rates for FHA mortgage plans drop. These plans include the standard FHA loan, as well as FHA specialty products which include the 203k construction bond; the $100-down Good Neighbor Next Door program; and the FHA Back to Work loan for homeowners who recently lost their home in a short sale or foreclosure.

3. VA mortgage interest rates – VA mortgage interest rates are also controlled by GMA bonds which is why FHA and VA mortgage bonds often move in tandem with both controlled by fluctuations from the same source. It is also why both move differently than conventional rates. So, some days will see high rates for conventional plans and low rates for VA/ FHA; as well as the reverse.

VA mortgage interest rates are used for loans guaranteed by the Department of Veterans Affairs such as the standard VA loan for military borrowers; the VA Energy Efficiency Loan; and the VA Streamline Refinance. VA mortgages also offer 100% financing to U.S. veterans and active service members, with no requirement for mortgage insurance.

USDA mortgage interest rates – USDA mortgage interest rates are also linked to Ginnie Mae secured-bonds (just as FHA and VA mortgage rates are). Of the three, however, USDA rates are often lowest because they are guaranteed by the government and backed by a small mortgage insurance requirement. USDA loans are available in rural and suburban neighborhoods nationwide. The program provides no-money-down financing to U.S. buyers at very low mortgage rates.

Mortgage rates predictions for 2016

Wondering what your chances are for getting a mortgage for a good rate the coming year? Wonder no further.

Here are the predictions for the 30-year trajectory:

  • Fannie Mae mortgage rate forecast: 4.4% in 2016)
  • Freddie Mac forecast: 4.7% Q1 2016, 4.9% Q2 in 2016
  • Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) forecast: 5.2% in 2016
  • National Association of Realtors (NAR) forecast: 6% in 2016.

In other words, mortgage rates are projected to rise slightly in 2016.

The Shopping for a Mortgage Rate Game

I have been advising borrowers who need residential mortgage financing for over seventeen years. My experience shows that no matter how sharp, intelligent, smart, educated, or ignorant a borrower is — the mortgage rate trap that they all fall into is the same. Unfortunately, by the time a borrower realizes that they have been misinformed, mislead, or just been given only part of the mortgage rate story; their inept, inexperienced, unknowledgeable, and eventually disinterested loan officer/customer service rep has earned an undeserved commission.

How many times do I sit and answer my phone only to hear “Hi, I was referred to you by so and so, and uh, I’d just like to know, uh, what is your rate is today?” My mind races with “Are you in contract? How much are you looking to borrow? What is the size of your current mortgage? What is the purchase price? How is your credit? Can you verify income? Are you locking the rate? How long are you looking to lock the rate for? When are you looking to close? Do you own any other properties? Are you buying the property to live in or for an investment? What type of property are you buying?” You see, the answer to all theses pertinent questions (and more) EFFECTS THE RATE! This warrants repeating one more time — the answer to all theses pertinent questions (and more) EFFECTS THE RATE! So, I say to the respective caller while qualifying my answer, “If you have good credit, can verify your income, intend to live in the property, and can show enough liquid assets to buy the property than the prevailing mortgage rate is X.”

Please understand, I do not blame borrowers for asking the question, BUT, I, as a mortgage professional, get frustrated seeing consumers, make the biggest financial decision of their life based on misleading advertisements and other information or lack thereof. The kicker is, that many mortgage companies’ advertisements and customer representatives confuse and/or mislead the consumer into applying for a mortgage with their company while legally and ironically complying with the federal laws set up by our government to protect the consumer. When do you or the borrower find out that the rate and closing costs are not what they appeared to be — AT THE CLOSING! The old bait and switch is still around, but even more costly is the withholding of relative information. Many mortgage officers feel they have a greater chance of closing your mortgage when they give you a direct answer to your direct question without volunteering the other pertinent information you would want to know, if you knew enough about mortgages to ask. This other information used in conjunction with the “what is your rate?” question can save you big bucks at the closing table and over the life of your loan.

There are many variables that go into each and every mortgage deal, and every deal is unique unto the borrower. I will try to provide you with some a general guideline of the “other information” you need to be aware of, so that you will be able to shop for mortgage rates intelligently, and, if you so desire, select a mortgage professional who knows what they are doing which may, consequently save you thousands of dollars.

1.Rates fluctuate daily. Some lenders lag behind the market, and some lenders adjust immediately to the market.

2. A conforming mortgage conforms to Fannie Mae and Freddie Macs; (the biggest purchasers of mortgages) underwriting guidelines. Their 2007 loan ceilings are: 1 family homes $417,000 2 family homes $533,850 3 family homes $645,300 and 4 family homes $801,950. The rates are generally competitive among lenders give or take an eighth to a quarter of a rate. “Jumbo” mortgages exceed the conforming ceilings. Jumbo rates are usually higher than conforming rates.

3. Occupancy affects rates. A primary residence is occupied by the borrower. A rate may have an add- on (increase), if the property is a second home, vacation home, or if the property is used for investment (you rent it out).

4. Loan to value (LTV) is the mortgage amount divided by the value of the property. The higher the LTV, the greater the risk to the lender, and the possibility of a higher rate.

5. A cash out refinance (cash over and above your existing mortgage) may incur an increase in rate depending on the lender.

6. Generally, the shorter the loan term (30 year vs. 15 year), the lower the rate.

7. The better the credit the better the rate. Today lenders are really focused on a credit score. A number determined by comparing your credit pattern and history to the credit bureaus database of proprietary mathematical formulas and models of historical consumer credit patterns. If your score is low, you might be a candidate for re-scoring your credit (legally) to bring up your score and consequently give you an opportunity for a better rate. Make sure that your time frame for getting the money you need coincides with the time it takes to correct or repair your credit. Otherwise, the time it takes to correct or repair your report may prevent you from taking advantage of current low rates or special deals which defeats the whole purpose (“A bird in the hand…”.)

8. Compensating factors affect the rate. The lender may offer you a lower rate because of a low LTV. A great credit score with borderline income may allow you to squeeze into a better mortgage rate.

9. Mortgage Brokers and Lenders have different programs for different types of borrowers. Generally, the more financial information you supply the better the rate. The programs are: Full income Full asset verification, No income with asset verification, No income No asset verification, and Stated income with asset verification. The key is to make sure that you match yourself to the right program so you not only get the appropriate rate, but to also make sure you don’t get turned down. For example, you apply for a full income full asset loan program, but you do not show the income needed to qualify on your tax return, but you may have qualified on a No income verification type of program.

10.There is, or supposed to be, a correlation between rates and points. A point is an up front fee of 1% of the loan amount you are borrowing. “Buying down the rate” means paying points to lower your rate. “Buying up the rate” means, paying fewer points to increase the rate. You would most likely want to pay points if: (a) you need to lower the rate to qualify (b) you will own the property long enough to amortize (recapture) the point money you paid up front (c) You have the extra cash. You will most likely not want to pay points if: (a) You don’t have the extra money (b) You will own the property for a very short time (c) You think rates are going to decline shortly. There are other reasons for paying and not paying points, which should be discussed on a case-by-case basis.

I have saved the best for last!

11. LOCKING THE RATE. When you call and ask “what is your rate?” you will generally get quoted the prevailing rate, a/k/a as the floating rate, which means, if you are ready and able to close within 15-21 days (which means you have applied for a mortgage, supplied your financial information, have a commitment from the lender, an appraisal, a title report, etc.), and you locked in the rate right now, this is the rate you would get. Now, how many first time homebuyers do you think fit that situation, Hmmm? Most residential purchase real estate transactions do not realistically fit a prevailing rate time frame. Most borrowers are not informed, at the time they are quoted the rate, about the if you are ready to close in 15-21 days closing time frame. Therefore, if rates are dropping, fine. BUT, if rates are increasing — Surprise!

Prevailing rate quotes will always be lower than locked in rate quotes. So, if you are rate shopping and want to compare apples to apples, when you are quoted a rate, the key thing is to make sure you ask: “How long the rate is locked in (protected) for? Are there any points, origination fees, broker fees? What lock-in time frames are available?” More importantly, make sure you can close within that time frame otherwise you may be subject to extension fees. Generally, the longer the lock the more it costs. Lock in periods are usually 15 days, 30 days, 45 days, 90 days, 120 days, 180 days. Paying points, increasing the rate, or both, incorporates the cost of the lock. You may want to ask if a float down option is available (if the rate drops after you lock can you get the lower rate.) More importantly than getting a rate lock agreement in writing, make sure the person you’re dealing with is honest, reputable, and whose word means something.

12. The APR (Annual percentage rate). I call it Another Proven Rip-off. A borrower is supposed to be given the APR along with the closing costs and rate information. If you look in the newspaper adds you will often see a rate advertised about one half to one percent lower than the real market rate. If you look on the side of that rate you will see what is known as the APR. This advertisement is perfectly legal, as long as the rate stated is accompanied by the APR rate, but in reality this is very tricky. According to the federal regulation Z, the APR is supposed to be the measure of the true cost of credit, expressed as a yearly rate. The government is trying to assist you, the consumer, in your loan decisions by making loan providers give you the APR “true cost of credit.” They mean well, but, unfortunately, most people do not have the sophistication, knowledge, time or financial calculator needed to figure out the APR. Long story short, by taking the loan amount, the rate you are quoted, and factoring closing costs into the calculation you arrive at the APR. So the rate you see in the newspaper that appears to be lower than everyone else means nothing unless you know exactly what the closing costs are. In these cases, the APR conceals the closing costs. You will find out that most of these advertised below market rates have several points built in to the closing costs. When mortgage shopping, instead of comparing APR’s, for your sake keeps it simple. Find out the rate, how long it’s locked in for, and all closing costs included and then compare. I hope this article helps you save thousands of dollars and good luck to all mortgage shoppers.

October 2007 – Mortgage Rates in Australia

Mortgage rates are a hot topic in Australia at the moment. Two issues are at the forefront of any discussion on mortgage rates today.

Firstly there is general concern amongst borrowers in Australia that mortgage rates may further increase over the short term. The Reserve Bank has increased the Official Cash Rate (OCR) a number of times this year and it is currently sitting at 6.50% p.a. These increases immediately impact on the cost of funds for lending institutions, both bank and non-bank, and as a result mortgage rates have also increased, with the banks standard variable rate now at 8.32% p.a. and the non-bank lenders generally in the market with mortgage rates around 7.75% p.a. By increasing the OCR the Reserve Bank is well aware that mortgage rates will follow suit. Under its charter, the Reserve Bank is responsible for formulating and implementing monetary policy that will contribute to:

(a) the stability of the currency of Australia;

(b) the maintenance of full employment in Australia; and

(c) the economic prosperity and welfare of the people of Australia.

These objectives have found practical expression in a target for consumer price inflation, of 2-3 per cent per annum. Controlling inflation preserves the value of money and is the main way in which monetary policy can help to form a sound basis for long-term growth in the economy.

So, how does an increase in the OCR and mortgage rates generally help achieve these inflation targets? As the mortgage rates increase across Australia, borrowers have less surplus cash to spend, there is less demand for consumables, businesses have less money to invest and as a result the economy is slowed down and the inflation rate is held in check. If the economy is too slow the Reserve bank can effectively reduce mortgage rates (by reducing the OCR) and thereby provide borrowers with more surplus funds. This increases demand for consumables and one sees greater economic activity.

It is ironical that because in Australia we are enjoying strong economic growth and have employment at an all time high we end up finding our mortgage rates increasing. If we were to save more rather than spend and borrow, inflation would not be increasing at the level it is and mortgage rates would remain steady.

But would they? This brings me to the second issue which has had a significant impact on mortgage rates and has made headlines in newspapers in Australia over the past few months. In the past mortgage rates in Australia have been pretty much domestically driven (i.e. by the Reserve Bank) but more recently we have seen mortgage rates influenced by problems occurring in international financial markets. The main culprit is the United States where there have been unprecedented mortgage defaults which have frightened off would be global lenders and investors in mortgage securities. Even though mortgage rates in Australia remain relatively low and defaults here are not a significant problem (in other words they remain a sound investment), the US default crisis has scared off potential investors. As a result mortgages are no longer flavour of the month and those that are still prepared invest are seeking a higher rate of return. Consequently the cost of funds world wide increases for debt securities and mortgage rates across the world increase as result. As noted earlier the banks current standard mortgage rates sit at 8.32% p.a. variable which is up to .50% more than the non bank mortgage rates of 7.75% p.a. Because the banks’ mortgage rates were considerably higher than the non-banks before the impact of the US situation, to date they have been able to hold their rates. The non-bank lenders, who have historically priced their mortgage rates below the banks, have had to move their mortgage rates sooner because they simply don’t have the profit margins, the “fat” in their pricing, which most banks enjoy.

The banks are endeavouring to gain market share with claims that they are holding their mortgage rates (8.32% p.a.) but hopefully borrowers will recognise that the mortgage rates of the non-bank mortgage manager lenders remain competitive. They might also want to consider where mortgage rates would be without the mortgage manager competing with the banks for their business. Prior to the non- bank mortgage manager entering the market, the banks’ mortgage rates contained profit margins of up to 3 % p.a. Back in the 1990s the non-bank lender was able to enter the market and compete aggressively for business because they were not trying to maximise profit at the expense of borrowers but rather offered mortgage rates that were well below the major banks. The banks were initially quite arrogant, holding their mortgage rates and profit margins, thinking that lower mortgage rates would not be enough to woo borrowers. Little did they realise that the non-bank sector not only offered lower mortgage rates but also professional and friendly service. It took around 3 years before the banks finally reduced their margins and offered mortgage rates that were somewhat more competitive.

The next few months will determine whether the US mortgage crisis will be a short term problem for mortgage rates or whether the meltdown in America will have a long term impact on mortgage rates in Australia. In the meantime keep an eye on mortgage rates across the market, sit tight because no matter which lender you are with, mortgage rates over the next few months will be a little unpredictable but inevitably are likely to settle down again.